Debates could still prove pivotal

Recent national polls all indicate Sen. Barack Obama establishing a comfortable lead over Sen. John McCain in both popular support and electoral votes. States that haven't trended Democratic in presidential elections in decades — Virginia, North Carolina, and perhaps most surprisingly, Indiana — are now in play. The chief reason for this, of course, is the faltering economy, which now ranks first among voters' concerns and has played strongly in Obama's favor.

Nevertheless, supporters of the Democratic ticket shouldn't uncork the champagne quite yet. A full month still remains until the long-awaited election, and as I've noted before, a month is like a year in the world of American politics. If economic fears are somehow assuaged between now and then, which is possible, the playing field could be leveled out dramatically. (Remember the dog days of late August and early September, when McCain was ahead in the polls?) Even if they're not, which is more probable, public perception of the candidates could be altered dramatically by the two remaining debates. McCain still has an opportunity to convince voters that Obama doesn't hold a lock on the economic issue — something he's failed to do thus far, but still could.

In my estimation, Thursday night's veep debate will prove inconsequential in the progression of the 2008 race. The warnings I issued in the preceding post now seem almost laughably apocalyptic, given the benign nature of the event. Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin did exceed popular expectation, displaying confidence in her responses and launching some memorable jabs while maintaining the small-town charm that enamors her supporters (whether that charm is authentic or not is another question). As was to be expected, her answers were sometimes short on detail and mostly repeated verbatim McCain's talking points and attack lines from the first debate. Still, her folksy accent — which, by the way, sounds much more Duluth than Juneau to me — may have been enough to distract attention from that. By not falling flat on her face as anticipated, Palin succeeded.

Sen. Joe Biden, meanwhile, followed my advice and struck a very respectful and focused tone, speaking passionately but never betraying frustration or condescension. He also demonstrated his experience and readiness for the job, committing no notable gaffes. He conspicuously kept the spotlight trained on McCain, not Palin, which was a shrewd strategy. And he did a better job than Obama did in the first debate of tying McCain to Bush policies, as well as challenging the "maverick" label that Republicans are so eager to brandish this year. Biden's performance, while not exceptional, was at least on target and respectable.

Keeping these factors in mind, Thursday night's debate can best be called a draw. This makes the remaining two presidential debates all the more pivotal. McCain knows that these are his only remaining big opportunities to make a case for the presidency, so he'll likely pull no punches. Barring any unpredictable events, the dates of Oct. 7 and Oct. 15 may seal the deal on this contest.